Newcastle United host Fulham at St James’ Park on Saturday, 25 October 2025, 14:00 BST in a crucial Premier League fixture. Our expert analysis strongly recommends Newcastle to win, based on home advantage, form, head-to-head trends, and squad quality.
Head-to-Head Overview
- Newcastle and Fulham have faced each other 81 times across competitions, with Newcastle narrowly leading 34 wins to Fulham’s 33, plus 15 draws.
- In the Premier League era, Newcastle have 15 wins from 34 meetings, Fulham 14, draws 4.
- Recently, Newcastle have dominated with 20 points from the last 10 fixtures against Fulham, including big away wins (4-0, 4-1).
- Fulham won their last Premier League meeting 3-1 (home), but Newcastle returned a 2-1 win at St James’ Park last season.
Form Analysis
Newcastle United
- Recent Premier League position: 14th with 7 points from 8 matches (2W, 3D, 3L).
- Last 10 league games: 2 wins, 5 losses, 3 draws averaging 0.7 goals scored per game from 3.9 shots on goal.
- Defensive record: Goals conceded average 0.9 per game, showing some defensive frailty alongside a solid 5 clean sheets.
- Key players: Nick Woltemade (4 goals), Bruno Guimarães, William Osula.
Fulham
- Recent Premier League position: 15th with 8 points from 8 matches (2W, 2D, 4L).
- Last 10 league games: 3 wins, 5 losses, 2 draws, averaging 1.1 goals scored per game.
- Defensive record: Conceded 1.6 goals per game indicating defensive vulnerabilities.
- Key players: Raúl Jiménez (2 goals), Harry Wilson, Ryan Sessegnon.
Why Newcastle to Win?
- Home advantage at St James’ Park, where Newcastle have enjoyed significant success historically and recently against Fulham.
- Recent domination in head-to-head, including commanding wins away from home in previous seasons.
- Stronger defensive solidity and better squad depth relative to Fulham’s defensive struggles.
- Motivational edge and form improvement with key players returning and new coach shapes taking hold.
- Fulham’s inconsistent away performances, historically struggling at St James’ Park.
Tactical Insights
- Newcastle’s high pressing and quick transitions can exploit Fulham’s defensive gaps.
- Fulham often rely on counter-attacking and set-pieces but struggle to sustain pressure on the road.
- Newcastle’s midfield creativity and pace on the wings will challenge Fulham’s defensive line.
Betting Market Snapshot
| Market | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Newcastle Win | 1.85-1.95 | 51.3%-54.1% |
| Draw | 3.40-3.60 | 27.8%-29.4% |
| Fulham Win | 4.00-4.40 | 22.7%-25.0% |
Match Prediction Summary
Expected Score: Newcastle 2-1 Fulham
Key Points:
- Newcastle’s stronger home and historical head-to-head advantage.
- Defensive resilience against Fulham’s attack.
- Fulham’s road struggles at St James’ Park likely to persist.
